Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-09 13.665798 16.683159 20.036159 24.014231 28.580057 33.631523 39.616944
2025-11-16 9.159317 12.980191 17.703449 23.864206 31.573342 40.784695 52.496797
2025-11-23 6.479547 10.422398 15.742702 23.215480 33.189058 45.781441 62.592612
2025-11-30 5.166690 9.249974 15.171368 23.988978 36.349954 52.605833 75.084387
2025-12-07 3.943141 7.872928 13.994095 23.633748 37.778164 57.079565 84.616141
2025-12-14 3.163204 6.989070 13.346933 23.862178 39.903452 62.478386 95.520246
2025-12-21 2.328342 5.783011 11.957518 22.728709 39.852302 64.734319 102.118516
2025-12-28 1.948707 5.324304 11.716358 23.334162 42.385328 70.730361 114.136647
2026-01-04 1.601723 4.833981 11.325508 23.613945 44.381064 75.985899 125.264002
2026-01-11 1.338225 4.449788 11.058354 24.048669 46.611165 81.651186 137.164980
2026-01-18 1.145446 4.175612 10.953484 24.738410 49.270780 88.053768 150.356792
2026-01-25 0.896708 3.672887 10.292601 24.319399 50.010652 91.477546 159.170176
2026-02-01 0.714877 3.304484 9.889705 24.415140 51.765156 96.786494 171.397296
2026-02-08 0.553416 2.927373 9.398103 24.285061 53.124451 101.555530 183.042597
2026-02-15 0.403585 2.503711 8.698440 23.628776 53.455869 104.624694 192.107104
2026-02-22 0.340132 2.368106 8.689091 24.412992 56.477572 112.264022 208.645186
2026-03-01 0.252449 2.071281 8.185790 24.052894 57.296104 116.201401 219.356329
2026-03-08 0.198979 1.891252 7.962412 24.284460 59.249886 122.136149 233.470863
2026-03-15 0.130125 1.556301 7.191652 23.135361 58.382714 123.109574 239.449993
2026-03-22 0.106223 1.466616 7.159681 23.749185 61.086424 130.458071 256.203859
2026-03-29 0.082371 1.348356 7.003540 24.032819 63.120363 136.675181 271.227299
2026-04-05 0.064963 1.256510 6.914608 24.473506 65.499681 143.590272 287.608921
2026-04-12 0.053052 1.196300 6.925231 25.172661 68.460021 151.657239 306.152919